eBusiness Weekly
BusinessWeekly
Last Word
While the infection rates for Covid-19 appear to be going down very slowly, the death figures, which measure the infections of about a week ago, are still high and it would certainly be imprudent to assume that the Level Four lockdown will be lifted at the beginning of next month.
Health authorities were expecting a peak in infections and deaths during the recent lockdown, which is presumably why it was initially announced for just 30 days, but the progress is slow. In any case, more credence might have to be given to the numbers dying.
The death rate of over 2 percent strongly suggests that at least half, and probably more, of those infected are never tested. This is not some conspiracy.
We already know from areas where there has been universal testing, such as that done in the couple of schools last term where there was an outbreak, that a good proportion of those who test positive exhibit no symptoms or only very minor symptoms and so would not go for testing unless there was some good reason.
In the schools, the testing was part of an easy tracing programme, so a lot of people were suspected of being positive and testing made sense. But in much of Zimbabwe, especially urban Zimbabwe, many of those infected are not infected by people they live or work with, but by total strangers they meet outside home and work. So unless they have symptoms they never think of a test.
The deaths probably give a more accurate idea of the scope of the infections. You cannot be buried in Zimbabwe anonymously; there has to be a burial order and the health authorities do treat as a possible Covid-19 death every possible suspected death.
In any case, many of those who do die of Covid-19 had the complications and symptoms from the infection, and would have sought medical attention and been routinely tested as they were admitted.
But that pool of untested but infected people who exhibit few if any symptoms, means that it will take longer for the spike in infections to diminish to levels where a public health officer would feel reasonably happy that a strictly enforced level two lockdown could work.
So businesses are going to have to think how they operate through a tighter lockdown, and here businesspeople and their associations are going to have to work closely with the Government, co-operating and seeking innovative solutions that help more businesses operate without increasing the risks of infection.
This is possible. Trying to bully the Government, and aiming for an all or nothing position, that is all businesses are open or nothing, will not work.
Already many businesses have been highly co-operative. Mining and manufacturing are both open, under tight conditions, and business houses appear on the whole to be enforcing this conditions. Workers are scanned as they enter, are forced to wear masks and are spaced out enough to minimise infections.
Hygiene is stressed.
This is a good starting point. The adherence to the rules is not just obeying a regulation, it is enlightened self-interest since no one needs a factory closed because a bunch of supervisors were slack.
Supermarkets have been following the rules themselves and are now even enforcing the social distancing. The useful measure or “one trolley apart” is a good a measure as any.
To give most Zimbabweans their due, the spike in infections and deaths has upgraded personal responsibility, and even without police enforcement the wearing of masks in public is
now a lot more common and people get twitchy when they feel a bit crowded.
It is this that businesses will have to work with as they discuss with the health authorities ways of easing lockdown restrictions without increasing risk.
Already things like virtual meetings, working from home and the like have become common. The health authorities could not care if an accountant worked 12 hours a day, at home and alone, since the objective is to prevent infection, not close anyone’s business down.
The main criterion is to avoid crowds, either directly in a shop or other business premises, or indirectly by having large numbers of the streets or on pavements or in shopping centres.
So one possibility for some retailers is to see if a system can be worked out where they go online. A small number of staff would have to be allowed to come to work, but doors would remain locked so eliminating customers coming to the shopping area or into the premises. Orders would be taken, paid for electronically, and then delivered.
Here it would probably be useful if a group of shops in shopping centre could amalgamate their deliveries, so just one van went out, or even just one scooter messenger., to each area of customers. This would not just reduce traffic but reduce costs, since one vehicle and worker would be required for a large block of orders.
Online shopping and deliveries will not work for all shops in all areas, but it seems that it could be set up by those who supply manufacturers and could be set up in suburbs where there are a lot of people online.
So the possibility exists that the retailers in, say, Avondale or Borrowdale could combine, set up a virtual shopping centre and organise a delivery system. Deliveries could even be divided into routine, where the customer waits for the next van going to their area, and time urgent.
Obviously some delivery charges might have to be levied, but these could be low for the routine vans.
Any group of businesses looking at trying this sort of system would have to work it out in some detail before approaching the Government, probably through the Ministry of Industry and Commerce where there are likely to be officials open to working ideas that they could then take to the health authorities.
Major chain stores could try the same idea, with greater ease.
Even those using some in the informal sector could come up with solutions that work. For example a dressmaker who has their customers’ measurements could be given orders, on the telephone, and payments made via mobile platforms. There might need to be a single collection trip, but this need not require a major change in rules.
The same sort of system could work for those who hire skilled people to make garden gates or burglar bars. Again you do not have to meet if measurements can be sent by SMS, with instructions coming from the workman over exactly what to measure.
While a Level Four lockdown keeps a lot of people at home, and closes a lot of business, it could be modified very carefully, and businesses should be thinking of ideas to do this and then working with the Government.
Any modifications would have to be based on trust, that the businesses could be trusted not to go beyond what was agreed, and there cheating in the past and cheating today, bottle stores for instance, does throw a spanner in the works.
On the other had the Government has made it clear it wants to see as much business as possible functioning to some degree, with the limits over the overriding requirements of public health.
So solutions need to be able to address those requirements.
