Hope missing in economic recovery

17 Jan, 2020 - 00:01 0 Views
Hope missing in economic recovery Minister of Power and Energy Development Fortune Chasi

eBusiness Weekly

Elias Pacheso

whoever you talk to, whether they are in the country or outside, the Zimbabwean economy has all but been written off, with only two weeks into the year. The start of a new decade should bring with it new dreams and instil confidence in economic players that things will be different.

That the economy has continued to deteriorate robbing people this shared sense of achievement is heart rending to say the least. As an economist, one of the occupational hazards faced is being expected to know it all or expect to provide clues to where things are going. Will the economy ever come right? What will it take for the economy to recover? These are the questions many economists face everyday.

When a reputable think tank says the Zimbabwean economy will contract by up to 12 percent in 2020, policy makers must ask themselves why? And act fast to direct economic analysts to shift their perceptions and expectations.

As an economist who has seen the country go through up and down cycles, I took a huge step back and asked myself what this really means.

Whether we like it or not, hope is scarce and there is indeed very little confidence for many in the nation. It’s therefore not difficult to see why the economy would suffer in such an environment.

Policy makers must encourage/force a mindset change for economic players to start hoping and making the right decisions to invest and expand.

Without this, the economy will continue to experience negative growth. Enough of this unending despair and desperation. This negativity must end if we are to move our economy forward.

What nation ever grew on negativity and despair? Which country recorded a major turnaround when 90 percent of its population was focused on unending negative news? This topic is rather difficult to unpack but it is necessary for us to come together as a nation and gather around the key issue of confidence building and restoration of hope for the people. Hope in a stronger dollar, hope in lower prices, hope in more foreign currency availability and hope in the country’s institutions. When all is said and done, hope is all we have as a people. We only have one Zimbabwe and that place has and will continue to be our home.

Look around you and see the resources around us that can unlock value for the country and its people if we focus on creating hope and self-belief. I have no crystal ball but I can tell you that with the right positive attitudes, Zimbabwe could very well become the envy of many across the world, due to its positioning and abundant unexplored natural and human resources.

As I drive everyday to work I see an ever increasing number of houses with solar panels on their roof, a testament to the forced adoption of renewable energy forced by the reduced power supplies from ZESA. I smile because I know that this means the pressure on the national grid will one day be diminished.

I also wonder what it can take to make this a power revolution where every home has solar panel on its roof and not only that, I wonder what would happen if this power was readily tradable with those who generate more than they need selling to those who use more than they are able to generate. I quickly think about what it would take for the Ministry of Energy and Power Development to wake up one day and make this possible. I know that many insurance companies would readily invest in the long term power initiatives if the right policies that guarantee a positive return were in place.

I soon realise that although these things are possible, not enough time is spent studying our problems and drafting implementable solutions to them. While the Government has suspended duty on solar equipment from solar panels to batteries, and the market is awash with these products, not many people can afford                                                                                                   them.

Without access to credit, many people continue to go without power when all that it could take is Government driven policies on things like tax rebates or interest rates to the home owners who are able to contribute some amount to the installation of their own solar systems.

We talk about the need for productivity in the economy, when the issue of fair wages is all but forgotten. A holistic look at all the problems facing the economy is needed. One that says how do we restore hope in the shop floor worker who is finding the going tough and doesn’t know how they will get to the end of the month or to the next pay cheque.

How does the economy drive people to a place where they see nothing but a brighter future? If I had the answers to these questions, I would happily give them away but like many economists in the country, it’s difficult to make sense of what the economy is growing.

Many point to effects of the dollarisation of the economy, which is all but impossible to undo. To me the most important thing that needs to happen in our motherland without any further delay is the restoration of hope! It is the only missing ingredient to building a productive nation and prosperity in the nation.

Without hope nothing moves, without hope there is no investment, only unending speculation and short-termism. No country ever turned around without local investment and increased domestic savings. Today savings are all but decimated owing to the widening gap between incomes and USD indexed costs. I hope to see increased focus on the restoration of hope in the economy and in future articles I will focus on some of the ways policy makers can start rebuilding hope one brick at a                                                                                                          time.

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